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Forecasting Cannabis Basket size by Sales and GDP of States

 

While the legal cannabis landscape continues to expand into new state markets, there are several factors influencing executive teams when analyzing these strategic growth opportunities.

 

Nominal GDP AT CURRENT PRICES 2020 // MAY CANNABIS SALES // 2021 Population BY STATE

Over the past six months, several states have turned into hot markets for MSOs looking to expand. To understand the factors that influence market opportunity and visualize their correlation, we crossanalyzed population, nominal GDP, average basket size in existing markets, and May’s cannabis sales data. California, for example, contains more than 50% of the American adult population eligible to purchase cannabis, in addition to over 54% of the total nominal GDP amongst the 7 adult-use markets evaluated.7,8 This state, however, only accounts for 36% of the total monthly cannabis sales, demonstrating that the population and GDP may not serve as a direct correlation when understanding a state’s market opportunity.9

When you consider the average basket size in each of the states, a clearer picture emerges. In California, the average basket size is only $67.42, whereas in Michigan, the average basket size is $84.09.9 When comparing these stark differences, it is clear that the state’s population doesn’t play as much of a role as the amount each customer spends per trip and number of adults in the state consuming cannabis.

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Join the 1,512 others who are receiving high-signal, data-driven analysis to be in front of their peers in the cannabinoid space! If you have found value in our insights please share this with another canna-curious individual to grow the revolution!

Each month we spend hours analyzing market research, data trends and private conservations to will keep you in front of the ever-evolving cannabinoid industry. Read the entire July Report here

One Report, Once a Month, Everything you need to know

Progress doesn’t always show up as major milestones, and nowhere is this more evident than in the cannabis industry. As we continue our journey to end Prohibition 2.0, we must consistently remind ourselves thatthe small wins, when combined, equate to massive progress. As author and poet Richelle Goodrich wrote, “Small steps may appear unimpressive, but don’t be deceived. They are the means by which perspectives are subtly altered, mountains are gradually scaled, and lives are drastically changed.”2

In the cannabis space, the changing of perspectives is akin to a seismic shift, and every legal victory is a small chip away at the crumbling, anti-cannabis infrastructure.

“Alabama legalized medical cannabis, Texas has expanded their medical cannabis program, Louisiana ruled in favor of decriminalization, Connecticut has just become the19th adult-use state.”

Over the past few months, we’ve all anxiously awaited information regarding the bill to end cannabis prohibition, a piece of legislation aggressively championed by Senator Schumer.3 While many would argue that his repeated yet empty assurance that the bill will come “soon” is a sign of stagnation, it’s important to look at his statements in conjunction with the changes the industry is experiencing.

Within the past dozen weeks, Alabama legalized medical cannabis, Texas has expanded their medical cannabis program, Louisiana ruled in favor of decriminalization, and Connecticut has just become the 18th adult-use state. If all of these events happened in a year’s time within another industry, it would be chalked up as an automatic success. In the cannabis space, however, frustration with the system has somehow minimized the impact of such regulatory accomplishments.

“Large, outside industry players have officially announced their intention to enter the cannabis world.”

This progress isn’t confined to the world of legislation; it extends throughout the entire market. Large, outside industry players have officially announced their intention to enter the cannabis world, and as Uber continues to share their thoughts on cannabis delivery, Amazon is pushing for federal legalization.4,5 (Does this sound familiar? If it does, it’s because we predicted it back in January!) Even the NFL has decided to offer its support after years of suspending players for failed drug tests, with its pain management committee announcing that it “will provide $1 million in funding for research into pain management and cannabinoids.”5

These are the small steps that may appear unimpressive individually, but together indicate that cannabis is an industry that’s here to stay and ready to change lives for the better. The Prohibition 2.0 walls are coming down, and these events generate the necessary momentum to make the bigger dominos fall.

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