Nowadays, it’s tough to be a cannabis operator. Wholesale prices are crashing, there are increasing levels of competition, an ever-changing regulatory landscape, an unfavorable and unsafe tax regime, and a dozen other major thorns on your side. And now we appear to be in or headed towards a global economic recession some macroeconomic analysts are predicting to be quite severe and long-lasting. Inflation, supply chain breakdowns, higher interest rates, low economic growth, and high unemployment are either on the horizon or are already in place..

Is the cannabis market going to make it? Am I going to make it? These are common questions of those in the industry.

While the effects, length or severity of a recession are anyone’s guess, there is a silver lining that many other industries can’t rely on. New marketing and new customers are coming into the cannabis market regardless of an economic downturn.

Multi-billion-dollar markets are opening on the East Coast: New York, Connecticut and New Jersey are coming online with much pent–up growth. Regardless of the severity of the economic downturn – the size and strength of the cannabis market will continue to grow.

Will we get something positive out of DC in 2022? Maybe.It’s always hard and often frustrating to predict positive cannabis legislation passing federally. Pressure and momentum continues to grow on SAFE Banking Act or similar omnibus legislation that falls short of federal legalization passing this year. If passage does occur it will act as a massive stimulus to the entire industry; lowering operating costs and opening up new flows of capital and financial opportunities currently unavailable due to federal legal restrictions.

States are continuing to act and move forward, here are some highlights:

  • Rhode Island just legalized adult use cannabis sales.
  • Illinois just announced they will double the number of cannabis retail licenses.
  • Maryland, Missouri and other states may pass adult use or medical cannabis legislation through the ballot box or state legislatures this year.
  • Pennsylvania and other states are acting to provide state level 280E tax relief.
  • A three-year cultivation tax holiday is about to kick off in California.
  • More and more local municipalities are opening up opportunities for cannabis businesses to establish..

Also don’t forget where we’ve come from. In 2011 the Arcview Group released a first of its kind report on the State of the Legal Cannabis Market in North America –

Historically, it’s never been easy to operate in this space.

This was only 10 years ago. Going from $1.7 to $24 billion in total sales in a decade is impressive in anyone’s book, and we know 2022’s total market size will be bigger still. What can we realistically imagine the cannabis industry will look like 10 years from now in 2032?

  • Federally legal cannabis market with interstate commerce
  • Plant touching companies listed on US stock exchanges
  • Major cannabis brands recognizable to most Americans
  • Hundreds of billions of dollars in M&A activities
  • A $40 billion+ annual global market in the US, Germany and other markets around the world

In short, a dramatically different US and global cannabis environment will exist. Take the long view on the cannabis industry and you can only be optimistic. What can you contribute to make this dream a reality in your own business, your own cannabis dreams, your own positive cannabis advocacy?

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What Disconnect?

Cannabis products are sold from coast to coast. However, it is increasingly clear that the consumer community is not happy.

Cannabis has already become a multi-billion-dollar industry. Cannabis products are sold from coast to coast. However, it is increasingly clear that the consumer community is not happy, and many are leaving the regulated market because they experience Inferior products. These products are perceived as too expensive and burdened by excessive tax rates. Efforts to apply national standards are still in discussion, while the Cannabis industry is mired in a patchwork of state-by-state safety regulations and a lack of interstate commerce. The Cannabis consuming public deserves a solution.

As co-founder of the CESC, a nonprofit Cannabis Science organization, Dr. Jean Talleyrand, M.D. recently visited the Flore Dispensary in San Francisco’s Castro District.Flore Dispensary is a newly opened medical Cannabis retail store located at a historic corner. At this corner more than 25 years ago, Brownie Mary handed out Cannabis infused “treats” to AIDS patients. Just down the street, Dennis Peron’s Cannabis Buyers Club became the world’s first medical Cannabis dispensary since prohibition. A few years later, Dr. Talleyrand evaluated his first medical Cannabis patients, also down the street. Dr. Talleyrand now represents a pressing need for the scientific exploration of Cannabis products. The CESC is coordinating a launch of Version 2 of The Dosing Project with the Flore Dispensary. The Dosing Project investigates community-accessible Cannabis products to discover optimal doses and efficacy. What better venue than this: a historic community that provides a natural resource for research? The Flore Dispensary along with other CESC strategic partners are the proving grounds for this CESC initiative.

“The Cannabis community is thirsty for knowledge.  They are curious to know what and how much works for their aches, pains, and stressors.  They want to know what gives energy or relaxes them.  What makes them hungry, sleepy, or (yes, even) aroused”

Dr. Jean Talleyrand, Chief Medical Officer of the CESC

How have we landed in the present situation: a largely unmet need for Cannabis product surveillance for both safety and efficacy for consumers?

At a recent (June 14, 2022) meeting of the FDA, after soliciting public comment it was clear that consumers expect regulators not to prohibit, but to monitor Cannabis product efficacy, safety, and content.

There are elements of regulatory disconnect at all levels of the Cannabis industry. Federal and state regulatory agencies are addressing limited parts of the challenges presented by Cannabis. Because the FDA has approved THC and CBD as pharmaceutical ingredients, it sets up a regulatory conflict with Cannabis products. The pathway for seeking regulatory approval and oversight for food and dietary supplements incorporating cannabinoids is opaque. This results from a basic tenant of the FDA that pharmaceutical ingredients cannot be food additives or supplements. Regulatory oversight at the state level has largely focused on product safety, eschewing the question of product efficacy, and leaving that to the commercial industry and marketplace to sort out for itself. Commercial organizations, however, are barely able to focus on evaluating their product efficacy. After being overwhelmed by high state and local taxation rates, and the vagaries of getting and keeping a bank account in the current banking environment, Cannabis product manufacturers are left with few resources to devote to research and development. As a result, the consumer is left in the dark and unsure how to make good purchasing decisions.

The CESC’s Solution:  Establish a Cannabis product ecosystem.  The CESC is building a product formulary comprising a validated set of Cannabis products that consumers can rely on.  Furthermore, the CESC is developing an application that predicts dose and outcomes from products across all categories.  This model is anchored to community assessments derived from the Dosing Project and powered using AI, machine learning algorithms engineered by top-tier Cannabis data science professionals. 

Over the next five issues of The Cannabinoid Playbook, we will illustrate the conceptual foundation and provide the details how the CESC solves this disconnect between Cannabis industry growth potential and current consumer dissatisfaction.

I. A Paradigm Shift: Introducing the Dosing Project as a broad observational study platform providing a non-traditional approach to clinical study

II. Solving the “Sativa” or “Indica” dilemma: Cannabis aroma provides a foundation for classification

III. Beyond Cannabinoids: How Cannabis terpene, thiol, and ester components can expand product classification

IV. Validating characteristic anticipated effects of Cannabis use and categorizing responders

V. Evaluating Cannabis products

For further information, please contact The CESC at [email protected] at the end in the available white space at the bottom of the 2nd page. Also, can we add a link to our website in this sasme space. Visit The CESC

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[00:07:02] Vince Ning on Nabis’ earliest business plan

It comes back to just what the customer needs. And back then, we didn’t have our B2B marketplace. We didn’t build a Nabis Capital Solution. We didn’t build analytics tools. We just built a website to help people enter orders in that we would deliver and fulfill. We’d collect payments for them and that’s what people needed. They didn’t need some fancy software, they didn’t need AI. They just needed some way to deliver their products from point A to point B compliantly and get paid. We would do the deliveries ourselves just to give that sort of high-touch experience and build a relationship directly with the execs at these companies. They just needed more tools that help them at scale, so that’s how we started to build out and flesh out the rest of our platform, and that’s what currently exists today.

[00:17:45] On the challenges that face some of the California cannabis operators

I’ll say that the biggest challenge right now is just incredibly high taxes. The problem is it’s actually starting at the top of the supply chain with cultivators. Ever since the inception of the California market, there’s been a cultivation tax. An excise tax and cultivation taxes were charged based upon the weight of the flower that was produced.

After last year, there’s been this overproduction, oversupply, of flower that are coming into the world. The average price per pound has fallen significantly, but the weight is still the same, if not more. What ends up happening is the taxes don’t fall in line with the average price per pound.

Vince Ning, CEO of Nabis

Because you’re still paying the same taxes but making less money, we’ve heard cultivators saying that they’re paying up to about 40% of what they have as their revenue in cultivation tax alone, not to mention all the labor costs and the actual cost to produce this product.

[In the legal cannabis industry] what operators will have to do is increase pricing to make their ends meet and who ends up bearing the cost is actually the consumer. And so when the consumer goes and buys weed, they will choose to buy from the illicit market because there are no taxes being applied to their own [production] and costs, and it’s oftentimes the same quality product.

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Jason Wild, Chairman of TerrAscend, is no stranger to making headlines. Last month on The Dime, he said:

“If you’re a retailer in an under-supplied market, you’re always going to be at a disadvantage because you’re only going to get products from the other players that are vertical.”

On the surface level, nothing controversial. Standard supply and demand in newer, limited license markets will also lead to limitations on organizations that can be cut out of key supplies or ingredients.

Chris Becker (@Chris_honeybee) had a different perspective on the quote, and it really got me thinking. This is the link for the full conversation.

We open social equity licensees and no longer limit them. Placing limits on licenses leads to corruption and bribery (my assumption). I have no proof, but it’s easy to assume that limiting golden tickets allows the game to not be fair for all interested parties. Opening license caps will likely have a ton more businesses enter the industry, which will also have a massive amount of them likely failing. Sadly, this is part of a free market, and not everyone deserves a trophy or generational wealth for participating. Survival of the fittest is exactly that. Supply and demand will hopefully find an equilibrium.

Below you can find the full version of the Jason Wild quote:

Are social equity dispensary licensees being set up to fail in limited license states? Should an industry’s expectations be that all operators play on an even playing field, and whose responsibility is all of this to advocate for fairness? States claim that they want to right the wrongs of the past and help minorities, as well as push for social justice, but how is that possible given the limitations to access to capital and current market conditions?

Is that Jason Wild’s and other Mso’s fault? No, definitely not. While some of the larger titans might help to influence their local politicians for limited license states (a different conversation), they (the MSOs’) should not be held directly accountable for how the game is set up. Politicians and those writing the rules to limit the number of participants in the market are the ones that should be in the crosshair when figuring out what is fair or unfair.

So, what do we do, Bryan? Great question, glad you asked.

The end goal is to have a fair, open supply chain that may be dictated by a few big players, but that doesn’t restrict the supply and demand of product moving into the space. Limits on products and licenses make it extremely hard for smaller, mom-and-pop shops to survive.

“If they have extra product, they’re willing to sell to you. So, during the best times, when the market is early on, there’s the most demand relative to supply. You’re at a major disadvantage if you’re only all retail, and you’re also at a disadvantage if the market gets more mature.”

I encourage you to listen to the entire conversation or read the interview here. This way, you can at least be informed on the complete context of his statement before you go and attack big MSOs.

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The cannabinoid industry has been a victim of the same forces influencing other markets with stocks down month over month and wholesale cannabinoid prices down from the THC markets to the CBD markets. Another cannabinoid key factor to keep an eye on for manufacturers will be the steady increase in future ethanol prices. Ethanol has experienced a 14% increase since January, and with it being a key solvent in most industrial-scale CBD and some THC manufacturing operations, we expect operators to be in challenging times. A decrease in wholesale prices coupled with increases in key inputs is never a good scenario. Managing supply chains, staying informed, and running efficiently during these times will be more crucial than ever as the industry continues to develop.

Kellen Finney, Eighth Revolution

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